The Ukrainian crisis could force Germany to take a tougher approach towards B&H, which would result in a stronger Western intervention, says a prominent Brussels-based web portal “European Voice”.
The portal goes on to say that Russia will, through the President of Srpska Milorad Dodik, try to achieve greater impact in B&H, in order to upset the European policy in this country. According to the portal, after the Russian intervention in Crimea, the West’s next move could be the replacement of the OHR with “a strong American man”, in order to, by bypassing the Peace Implementation Council (PIC ), prevent Russian dissenting opinions that favor Dodik.
“Another measure would be to strengthen European military forces on the ground, EUFOR, which would react in relation to security risks and would include measures against RS towards independence. If the West were united on these issues, it would outweigh the Russian opposition”, reads an article on the portal.
However, as stated in the article, the “weakest link” in the western aim for strong action in B&H is Germany.
“In stark contrast to the strong German politics in the EU with regard to fiscal consolidation, Berlin is for a soft approach to B&H which involves inserting more and more money into local kleptocracy. Such an approach softens the local elite, but hinders progress towards a more functional system”, reads the analysis.
They state that it was Germany that so far resisted European policies that would go towards stronger use of a wide range of tools and instruments in a more efficient manner.